New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

The New York Mets (45-30) visit the Philadelphia Phillies (45-30) on Friday as the NL East co-leaders start a 3-game series. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's MLB odds around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 3-0 with a sweep at home April 21-23

New York has lost 6 games in a row after falling 7-1 against the Atlanta Braves on Thursday and failing to cover as a +123 road underdog. A second-inning RBI from SS Ronny Mauricio kept the Mets from being shut out. The Mets have been swept in back-to-back series, at Atlanta and before that at home by the Tampa Bay Rays.

Philadelphia has won back-to-back games and 7 of its last 8 contests after beating the Miami Marlins 2-1 on Thursday and covering as a -138 road favorite. 2B Bryson Stott and DH Kyle Schwarber each had an RBI with Schwarber hitting a go-ahead solo home run (his 23rd) in the eighth inning to secure the Phillies' third win in the 4-game series in Miami.

Mets at Phillies projected starters

RHP Blade Tidwell vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

The 23-year-old Tidwell (0-1, 14.73 ERA) is making his second career start.

• MLB debut: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 6 ER, 9 H, 3 BB, 2 K in a 6-5 road loss against St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday, May 4
• 2025 AAA Syracuse stats: 4-4, 4.76 ERA with 54 H in 62 1/3 IP 25 BB, 72 K

Wheeler (7-2, 2.76 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 0.89 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 11.3 K/9 through 88 innings.

• Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 9 K in an 11-4 home victory vs. Toronto Blue Jays Sunday
• Career vs. Mets: 5-5, 4.35 ERA (39 1/3 IP, 40 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 16 starts

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Mets at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:28 a.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mets +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Phillies -185 (bet $185 to win $100)
• Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-145) | Phillies -1.5 (+118)
• Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Mets at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Mets 3

Moneyline

PASS.

There is minimal value on the Phillies.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (+118).

The Mets have struggled over their last 6 games. They have lost by at least 2 runs in 5 of their last 6 games and have lost by 5-plus runs in back-to-back games. Their offense has stalled, scoring just 1 run combined in 3 of their last 4 games.

The Phillies have won 7 of their last 8 games with 5 of the 7 wins coming by at least 2 runs. At home, with Wheeler on the mound against a rookie who greatly struggled in his only start this season, the Phillies have a clear advantage.

Over/Under

BET OVER 8.5 (-120).

The Mets have allowed 41 total runs in their last 6 games (6.8 runs per game) and have hit the Over 4 times in the last 6 games. In his only start this season in May, Tidwell allowed 6 runs in 3 2/3 IP.

The Phillies have scored at least 4 runs in 3 of their last 5 games. They have hit the Over in 6 of their last 10 games, scoring at least 4 runs in 7 of their last 10 contests.

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